Category: News

Rachel Reeves unveiled the first Budget of the new Labour administration on the 30th October.  As expected, it included large tax increases to fix the fiscal ‘black hole’ the Chancellor says she has inherited.  A number of the announcements have direct implications for farming.

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has updated its economic forecasts for the years ahead.  These show fairly anaemic growth for the medium term, and inflation not reverting to its target level of 2% until 2029.  Of course, one of the guiding principles for this Government is to boost economic growth.  This is not a short-term process however, and even sucessful policies will take years to show an effect.

Headline points from the speech include;

• As widely trailed, the rules on Agricultural Property Relief (APR) for Inheritance Tax (IHT) are to be amended, along with Business Property Relief.    100% relief will still be available for the first £1 million of combined agricultural and business assets.  On combined assets above £1m, IHT will be payable at 50% of the normal rate (50% of 40% = 20% effective tax rate).  The IHT threshold is to remain fixed at £325,000 until 2030.  At a land price of £10,000 per acre the new rules will hit farms abover circa 100 acres – hardly large farms.  The change is to be introduced from April 2026.  The rules on Potentially Exempt Transfers (PET) are unchanged meaning assets can be given away tax free if the donor survives 7 years.  There will be transitionary arrangements on this where deaths occur between now and April 2026.  The ability to pay IHT over 10 years remains.  From April 2025 land entered into environmental schemes will be eligible for APR
• The rates of Capital Gains Tax are to increase.  The standard rate will rise from 10% to 18% whilst the higher rate lifts from 20% to 24%.  This aligns the rates with those for residential property
• The biggest tax increase comes in the form of a rise in Employers National Insurance (NI) contributions.  The rate will go up by 1.2% from 13.8% to 15%.  The threshold at which payments start is also to be lowered from £9,100 to £5,000.  A very thin silver lining for employers is that the Employers Allowance will rise from £5,000 to £10,500.  The changes to NI are predicted to raise £25bn
• Minimum wage rates are to rise from April next year.  The National Living Wage for those 21 and above will go up 6.7% from £11.44 per hour to £12.21.  The 18-20 year old rate goes up from £8.60 to 10.00, whilst the Apprentice rate jumps from £6.40 to £7.55.  The combined effect of the NI and Minimum Wage increases will have a significant effect on those that employ a lot of labour at low wage rates – for example the fresh produce sector
• The thresholds for Income Tax and NI will remain fixed until 2027/28 as previously announced.  This is effectively a stealth tax as ‘fiscal drag’ gradually brings more people into higher tax bands as inflation takes effect.  Thresholds have been unchanged since 2022.  In a slightly surprising move the Chancellor stated that thresholds will start to be increased in line with inflation again for 2028/29
• Fuel duty will remain unchanged.  Alcohol duty will largely rise in line with inflation although the rate for draft beer is to be cut
• A reform of the Business Rates system is promised within the lifetime of this Parliament.

A key question for agriculture was what the funding for farm support is going to be.  Defra’s Departmental spending allocation is as follows;

The Budget document states that ‘The Government is facing significant funding pressures on flood defences and farm schemes of almost £600 million in 2024-25.  While the Government is meeting those commitments this year, it is necessary to review these plans from 2025-26 to ensure they are affordable‘.  It is not obvious what this means.  The publication goes on to state that ‘[The settlement is] providing £5 billion over 2024-25 and 2025-26 to support the transition towards a more productive and environmentally sustainable agricultural sector in England‘.  This, coupled with the announcement from Defra (see article on BPS in 2025), indicates that the current farm budget in England of £2.4bn per year has been maintained.  The amount for 2025/26 is going to be increased as a one-off to £2.6bn as £200m of underspend from previous years is going to be rolled forward.  This neatly arrives at the £5bn for two years.  In 2025/26 £1.8bn will be allocated to ELM.

A continuation of the current budget (in nominal terms) is not unexpected.  But should be remembered that there has been significant inflation since the £2.4bn for England figure was set in 2020.  Using the OBR’s forecasts going forwards, prices will be 30% higher in 2026 than they were in 2020 – thus this is effectively a circa 30% funding cut.  Furthermore, farm spending was never uprated for inflation when we were part of the EU.  The £2.4bn figure has been almost the same since 2007.  Agriculture is being asked to do more for less.  The settlement is far lower than the £4bn for England the NFU (with Andersons help) calculated as being required to meet Government policies.

Looking beyond 2025/26 (the 2025 ‘subsidy year’) the Comprehensive Spending Review will set Defra’s budget for future years – likely 2026 to 2028.  If public finances remain under strain, there is no guarantee about future funding even remaining at current levels.

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Following the Budget, Defra has released further information on its farming support schemes for 2025.  Details can be found in a Defra Blog post – https://defrafarming.blog.gov.uk/2024/10/30/budget-2024-maintaining-momentum/.

Delinked Payments

Defra has announced the deductions to delinked (BPS) payments in England for 2025.  Readers will recall we have been waiting to find out the reductions for the years 2025-2027.  It appears the cuts will be far deeper than we, and many others, forecast.  Defra has said, for 2025, it plans to apply a 76% reduction to the first £30,000 of a payment; we had previously estimated 65%.  Importantly though, for amounts above £30,000, there will be no payment at all – the deduction will be 100%.  This means that all English farms will receive no more than £7,200 in direct payments next year.   i.e a BPS delinked Reference Amount of £40,000 will be cut to £7,200 in 2025, reducing from £19,500 this year.  This will come as big shock to many, especially on the back of a poor harvest and two difficult autumns.

ELM

Defra has confirmed that SFI, Countryside Stewardship (Higher Tier) and Landscape Recovery schemes will continue.

The SFI 2024 expanded offer is open, although still requires an Expression of Interest to be submitted first and an ‘invitation’ from RPA to make an application.  There is no indication when the scheme will be freely open.

There will be more information regarding Countryside Stewardship Higher Tier in December (previous announcements have said it would be available ‘in the autumn’).  Farmers with expiring HLS or Higher Tier agri-environment agreements this year will be offered an extension to their existing agreement, supposedly to allow them time to move into new agreements in an ‘orderly way’.   The long-awaited process for those in legacy HLS agreements and those farming on Commons to transfer into new schemes, which was supposed to have been available from September has been pushed back until next year now – Defra states ‘Next year, we will make it much easier for farmers in legacy HLS agreements and those farming on Commons to transfer into new schemes smoothly, as and when they wish’.  This transfer process which was promised at the outset of ELM, appears to keep getting pused back.  Furthermore there is no real announcement on the third element of ELM, Landscape Recovery, the previous Government had committed to annual rounds, but there has been no application available this year as yet.  The latest announcement says ‘we will share more about future rounds of Landscape Recovery in due course’. 

Other Support

Defra has confirmed it will honour the £60 million which was made available under the Farming Recovery Fund to support those affected by Storm Henk and other severe weather last winter.  It has said the RPA will contact eligible farmers directly – many farmers have received correspondance from RPA now with a set amount offered via a banded payment rate depending on the area deeed to have been affected.  Payment should reach bank accounts within 28 days of the email.  It has also stated ‘We will simplify and rationalise our grants offer to prioritise the initiatives that deliver the most critical support for food security and environmental goals in England. We will confirm the plans for our grant rounds in due course’.  It is unclear what this is actually referring to, whether this is the capital grants under the Farming Investment Fund, which have not opened as ‘expected’ this year.

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The big question in terms of farm support over the next few months is how much funding there will be for 2025 and beyond.  The process by which we find out is unclear.  By reading various statements from the Treasury, we believe the timetable is as follows;

• the Budget on 30th October will set Departmental spending for 2025/26, including Defra’s.  This may also cover ‘in-year’ adjustments for the 2024/25 year, including any clawback of unspent Defra funds for other purposes 
• soon after (or concurrently), Defra shoudl then provide the Agriculture budget for the 2025 BPS year and BPS deductions for 2025 in England
• a comprehensive Spending Review will conclude in spring next year.  This will be for a minimum of three years (for 2026/27 to 2028/29) so would cover support years 2026 to 2028 – through to the end of the Agricultural Transition

We will, of course, keep you updated on any developments.

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The latest figures for Andersons’ Meadow Farm model shows some improved returns in the beef and sheep sector.  However, even with current high livestock, prices, the farm struggles to make a profit from its farming activity.

Meadow Farm is a notional 154-hectare (380 acre) beef and sheep holding in the Midlands.  It consists of grassland, with wheat and barley mainly for livestock feed.  There are 60 spring-calving suckler cows with all progeny finished, a dairy bull beef enterprise and a 500-ewe breeding flock.  The 2022/23 year was challenging – although output prices were high costs rose substantially (feed costs were especially expensive).  Further cuts to the BPS meant the overall farm made a loss.  In 2023/24, the gross margin improved due to lower costs and stronger livestock prices.  Overhead costs continued to drift upwards.  The farm again made a loss from production although it was much lower than the previous year.  The current 2024/25 year shows an improvement in output once more.  Some of the higher variable costs are due to the farm entering the SFI (i.e. herbal ley establishment).   The extra income from the SFI offsets the decline of the BPS and the business profitability improves.  The budget for 2025/26 suggests a downturn in performance – a combination of a further drop in the BPS and a moderation of beef and sheep values.

For nearly every year in the past decade, Meadow Farm has made a loss from agricultural production and has been reliant on support (BPS/CS/SFI etc.) to make a business surplus.  With the phased removal of the BPS, and the CS and SFI being inherently less profitable, the farm could become unsustainable.  The table above models a restructuring of the business.  Based on figures for the 2024/25 year, the numbers show that the farm can be reorganised to make a better overall return.  The restructuring sees the dairy beef enterprise discontinued and suckler progeny are sold as weaned stores, rather than being finished.  The sheep enterprise is increased from 500 ewes to 700 ewes and the arable land is fully contracted out.  Farm machinery is rationalised.  In addition, the proprietors’ time is freed-up and so there is opportunity to earn more income off-farm (as a result, drawings reduce).  There is now a margin made from agricultural activity.  In total, the business does make a good overall profit of nearly £65,000.

Looking at ‘average’ profits for grazing livestock farms, such as from the Farm Business Survey, it can often seem that the sector is doomed to loss-making.  However, there are good, profitable, beef and sheep farms in UK agriculture.  The restructuring of Meadow Farm, which is not particularly severe, shows what is possible.  The biggest obstacle tends to be people.  In the case of Meadow Farm the change in business performance is contingent on one of the family members being willing to work part-time off-farm.   

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As harvest progresses in the UK, grain prices have continued to slide.  The value of UK November 2024 UK feed wheat futures reached the lowest point for the contract since March 2024, although spot prices remain ahead of those levels.  The full picture for grain, oilseed and pulse prices is tracked monthly in our Key Farm Facts.

The Andersons Centre has been carrying out harvest reporting for AHDB throughout the course of the summer.  The latest harvest report was published on Friday 16^th August.  This showed that the wheat harvest was 37% complete; significant progress has been made in the weeks since then and is now nearing completion in much of Eastern England and the Midlands.  Wheat yields so far are 7% down on the five-year average across the UK.  There has been significant regional variation, with yields generally better for winter crops in East Anglia, and poorer in the Midlands.  This is perhaps not surprising given the challenges during planting and crop development this season.

Spring crop harvesting is also well underway across much of England.  Early signs suggest that spring crops are performing better, comparatively, than winter crops.  Yields and grain sizes have been promising and malting quality of barley samples has been good.  The lack of sunlight through crop development has led to low levels of nitrogen.

While low nitrogen is good for malting barley, the same cannot be said for milling wheat.  Low protein content has been a feature of milling wheat samples.  This has led to continued strength in milling premiums.  That said, poor protein is more manageable for millers than last year’s Hagberg quality challenge as it can be blended to acceptable levels. This may result in a fall in premiums through the season.

The direction of global grain prices is driven by the balance of global supply and demand.  The United States Department of Agriculture made unexpectedly large upward revisions to maize and soyabean production estimates in August.  The trade had expected increases of 0.75% and 0.05% to soyabean and maize production, respectively.  The USDA increased their forecasts by 3.48% and 0.29%, respectively.  The size of the change is relatively small but, being greater than traders expected, led to a decision to sell more, leading to a fall in prices.

Domestically, pressure is also coming from increased grain stocks which have been carried through harvest.  On-farm stocks are estimated at 1.16 million tonnes and more than 1 million tonnes of merchant, ports and co-operative stocks.  According to AHDB this figure is 89% above the five-year average level.  This reflects both the expectation of a smaller 2024 by the trade, and also the direction of prices this season leading to a lack of farmer selling.

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A reminder that the succession rules under Agricultural Holdings Act (AHA) tenancies changed as from the 1st September.  This is one of the changes brought in by the Agriculture Act 2020.  The previous ‘Commercial Unit’ test will be scrapped – this effectively meant someone could not take on the tenancy if they already had control of a large enough holding.  From the 1st September there will be three conditions for succession.  There are two ‘eligibility tests’ – firstly the potential successor must be a close relative to the previous tenant; secondly the successor must have derived their principal livelihood from the farm.  Then, the third condition is a ‘suitability’ test.  The person wishing to take over the tenancy must have the right level of experience, skills, financial standing and capability to take on the farm.  This test has been strengthened as a qui-pro-quo for the removal of the Commercial Unit test.

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Profitability figures from our Friesian Farm model are shown in the table below.  This is a notional 220+ cow business in the Midlands with a milk contract on a constituent basis.  It has a year-round calving system, like much of the UK industry, but it is trying to maximise yield from forage.  The figures are for milk years – April to March.

The 2022/23 year was a very profitable one for most dairy farms.  Milk prices rose to unprecedented levels and although costs went up a lot as well, many dairy farmers made record profits.  During the 2023/24 year milk prices declined considerably.  With costs ‘sticky’ on the way down, the business only broke even from its farming activities.  The decline in the BPS in England can be clearly seen.  For 2024/25 however, this farm has gone into the SFI.  This adds a useful amount to the bottom line (although there are costs to the scheme which are included in the farming margin).  Milk prices are firming but there is a question over how far and fast any rises may be.  Overhead costs drop for 2024/25 – this is due to cheaper fuel and electricity, but also due to unusually high contract costs during the previous year.  A strong recovery in profitability is forecast for the current year.

The final column is our first forecast for 2025/26.  An improving dairy market outlook sees the milk price up 1ppl.  Variable costs have remained fairly stable over the last couple of years and we forecast them just rising with a normal level of inflation.  Forecast overhead costs would have fallen for the year but the farm has budgeted to make some long-term investment in slurry storage.  We can clearly see the level of BPS declining, but together with the SFI payment the total is currently still more than support received in 2019/20 – a reminder that the costs of undertaking the actions to be in SFI (i.e herbal leys) are much higher than the BPS, but these have been accounted for in the farming margin.  Overall, however, the budget for 2025/26 shows some good returns – but it should be remembered that a lot can change in 18 months.

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Following its landslide victory in the General Election, the new Labour administration is starting to bed-in.

In farming terms, the former Shadow Defra team have been installed into Ministerial posts – meaning there should be little need for them to get up-to-speed on policy issues.  Steve Reed has become Defra Secretary of State and Daniel Zeichner has a junior position as Minister of State.  Mr Zeichner, MP for Cambridge, will be in charge of the farming portfolio as he was in the Shadow Cabinet.  Steve Barclay currently retains the Defra brief in Rishi Sunak’s new Shadow Cabinet.

Mr Reed (MP for Streatham and Croydon North) has already set out his five priorities for Defra;

• to clean up rivers, lakes and seas
• to move Britain to a zero-waste economy
• to boost food security
• to ensure nature’s recovery
• to protect communities from the dangers of flooding

At present, there is little flesh on the bones of these priorities.  The Labour Manifesto was notably silent on specific commitments to farming.

Labour’s longer-term legislative priorities were set out in the King’s Speech on 17^th July.  Over 35 potential Bills were announced.  Boosting economic growth by easing Planning rules was the centrepiece of the programme.  A Planning and Infrastructure Bill will be introduced which aims to ‘speed up and streamline the planning process to build more homes of all tenures and accelerate the delivery of major infrastructure projects’.  The new Government is already showing its priorities under existing powers.

• the end to the de facto ban on onshore wind
• reinstating mandatory housebuilding targets for Local Authorities (however, as many of these targets were never met in the past, it will be interesting to see what practical effect this has)
• the recruitment of 300 new Planning Officers to help reduce the backlog of applications
• prioritising energy infrastructure, with decisions being made in relation to the national interest (including the effect on growth) rather than just local considerations. Three large-scale solar farms have been approved in England, totaling 6,500 acres of farmland, which had been waiting for a Ministerial decision.  There had been strong local opposition to all three.

The transition to clean energy is a wider theme of the new Government.  A Bill will be enacted to set up GB Energy, a company headquartered in Scotland, that aims to accelerate investment in renewable energy.  There will be increased protection for workers (and cost for employers) under a new Employment Rights Bill.  A Renters Rights bill will give greater rights to tenants in England, including ending section 21 notices to quit.  New legislation will strengthen the powers of the water regulator – partly to improve water quality in rivers.  There will also be an English Devolution Bill aiming to pass power from Whitehall to the regions – but seemingly requiring Councils to come together in larger administrative units.

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In our article last month which reported on the expanded 2024 offer, we said the 23 SFI 2023 actions would be available in the SFI 2024.  This is true, but there are some (potentially significant) changes to the rules under some of the actions.  Below is a list of some of the key changes, although not exhaustive, and farmers and their advisors should check the new rules for themselves:

• CSAM3 – Herbal Leys.  This action will now be static.  It is also more prescriptive on the seed mix, which should include at least 1 grass species, 2 legume and 2 herb or wildflower species
• CIPM2 – Flower-rich grass margins, blocks, or in-field strips.  This action will be static.  In addition, it will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action – it doesn’t actually give advice on what constitutes ‘part’ of a parcel
• CNUM3 – Legume Fallow.  This will be static.  Originally in SFI 2023 NUM3 was a static option and then was quickly changed to rotational.  It seems to have reverted back; this could present a problem to those who were thinking of using legume fallow as a break crop in the crop rotation
• CIPM4 – No use of insecticide on arable and permanent crops.  If the land is being used to grow arable crops (including non-permanent horticultural crops), this action must be done on one ‘cash crop’ from when it is sown until it is harvested.  Many have been advocating for this
• CAHL1 – Pollen and nectar flower mix.  This action will be static.  Furthermore, it will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action
• CAHL2 – Winter bird food.  It will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action
• CAHL3 – Grassy field corners and blocks.  It will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action
• CIGL1 – Take improved grassland field corners & blocks out of management.  It will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action
• CIGL2 – Maintain improved grassland to provide winter bird food.  It will only be possible to put ‘part of the available area in a land parcel’ into this action

There are some more ‘general changes’ which sees a slight change to the phrase ‘it is up to you how you do this action‘ which now includes ‘as long as you:

• follow this action’s requirements – these are identified by a ‘must’
• do the action in a way that could reasonably be expected to achieve this actions aims

It is our understanding that the new rules will only apply to agreements under the new expanded SFI 2024 offer, but we will endeavor to keep readers informed of any updates.

For those who like a booklet, Defra has provided a pdf version (366 pages) of the actions this can be found via https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6655a85d0c8f88e868d33282/SFI-2024-actions-print-version.pdf. 

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UK farming made surprisingly good profits in 2023 according to Defra.  The Department has recently released figures for Total Income from Farming (TIFF) – this is the aggregate profit for the whole UK farming and horticultural sector.  The headline figure is that profits fell 16% in real terms between 2022 and 2023, but last year’s figures still came in at a very healthy £7.2bn – the third highest returns in the past 25 years.

The Defra figure for 2023 is much higher than we had been predicting.  We had estimated that profits for the year would fall to around £5bn.  Part of the reason is a sizeable upwards revision for the 2022 year (from 7.9bn to £8.6bn).  This results in the 2023 figure being higher.  There is a history of quite large revisions in the TIFF figures – we would not be surpised if those for the past year were amended in due course as well.

Both crop output and livestock output were down in 2023 compared to 2022 – by 16% and 7% respectively in real terms.  (Both of these drops were lower than we had forecasted).  Variable costs (called ‘intermediate consumption’ in these figures) showed a surpising drop of 9% year-on-year.  The fall was wholly due to a big drop in the value of animal feed consumed on farm.

The chart below shows the evolution (in real terms) of TIFF over the past 25 years.  TIFF shows the return to all entrepreneurs for their management, labour and capital invested.  In simplistic terms, it is the profit of ‘UK Agriculture Plc’.  Also shown on the chart is the contribution of direct support (BPS plus agri-environment scheme payments).  This has declined in recent years as inflation has eroded its real terms value.  However, it continues to contribute a sizeable proportion of farm profits.

Given our belief the 2023 figures might be revised downwards somewhat, our estimate for the current 2024 year is for a TIFF (in real terms) around the £6bn mark.  We would expect costs to rise as inflation continues to work its way through the system.  Harvest 2024 looks set to deliver low yields and unspectacular prices.  In contrast, most livestock sectors are currently having a reasonable year.  TIFF at this level would be very much in the normal range seen over the past few years – discounting the very good returns of the past three years.

The data on farm incomes (profits) comes from Defra’s annual publication ‘Agriculture in the UK’.  This compendium of statstics includes data on all aspects of the food and farming sector.  Full details can be found at – https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/agriculture-in-the-united-kingdom

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Details of the Sustainable Farming Incentive 2024 offer are now available.  A controlled roll out via Expressions of Interest is currently taking place with the scheme expected to open to all later in the summer.  To assist farmers with understanding what will be accessible we have produced a 4-page SFI Factsheet giving a summary of all the actions that will be available.

Click Here to access our SFI 2024 Factsheet.

If you require advice from one of our consultants, do not hesitate to contact them by email or phone.  Their contact details can be obtained by clicking here. Alternatively, your can also contact our office on 01664 503200 or email [email protected]

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