Author: Caroline Ingamells

Defra’s budget is to be cut in real-terms over the next three years.  This is the headline result of the long-awaited Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR).

The Department’s ‘Resource’ spending (i.e. day-to-day expenditure) is to fall by an annual average of 2.7% between the current year, 2025/26, and the 2028/29 financial year.  Capital spending, which, in Defra’s case, mainly goes on flood defences, does slightly better; falling by an annual average of 1.8% over the same period.  Defra is one of the Departments with the largest cuts in real-terms funding.

Farming Budget

Farmers are likely to be most worried about the agricultural support budget.  The Farming and Countryside Programme (FCP) is the equivalent of the spending that used to be received under the Common Agricultural Policy.  The Review sets out that an average of £2.3bn will be paid under the FCP over the next three years.  This compares with £2.4bn budgeted for 2024/25 and £2.6bn this year (although the current year is being boosted by underspends from previous years).  All of these figures are at current prices so do not account for inflation.  Effectively, the Government has done what previous administrations, and the EU, have done for many years, and just rolled-over the existing funding, but not uprated it for inflation.  Assuming 2.5% inflation for the next two years, and with the drop from £2.6bn this year, to £2.3bn in 2028/29, this results in around an 18% real-terms reduction.  Even being generous and using £2.4bn as the starting point, it is still an 11% real-terms cut.

These cuts will be translated into the budgets for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland through the Barnett formula.  

A subsequent Blog post on the Defra website (see https://defrafarming.blog.gov.uk/2025/06/16/spending-review-2025-a-commitment-to-farming/ ) provided a bit more detail on the breakdown of spending.  The table below summarises this.  We have put the current year’s spending in for comparison – although the breakdown in the Farming and Countryside Programme (FCP) for this year is not known – so they are our estimates.  The figures are all in current prices – so take no account of inflation.

It can be seen that the budget for the FCP falls significantly in current terms compared to the current year.  It is the rather nebulous ‘Nature Schemes’ that brings the figure back up.

Nature Schemes

The Blog post states that the ‘Nature for Climate Fund’ and the ‘Biodiversity Targets Programme’ will be ‘worth up to £400m per year‘.  Firstly, this figure is somewhat less than the £450m p.a. allocated to ‘Nature Schemes’ in the overall budget (it’s not clear why – some other schemes may be included).  Secondly, the two words ‘up to’ in the statement seem to provide significant wiggle-room for Defra.  Lastly, it is unclear what these schemes (and any other Nature Schemes) will fund.  The Defra article refers to tree-planting and (rewetting) peatlands.  Whilst these grants may be open to landowners and farmers it is a stretch to consider them ‘farming support’ as these uses suggest the land mostly, or wholly, coming out of productive agriculture.

BPS and ELM

It is stated that the BPS (aka ‘delinked payments) will continue for 2026-27 and 2027-28.  However, all reference amounts up to £30,000 will be reduced by 98%(!), with nothing paid on amounts above this.  Therefore, the maximum any business will get in 2026 and 2027 is £600.  

Defra promises ‘more details later this summer’ on how future ELM schemes will work.  Defra has stated an aspiration to make the schemes simpler.

Probably the best thing that can be said about the Budget settlement is that ‘it could have been worse’.  However, the pressure on Defra spending looks set to remain.  This has implications for ELM schemes.  As we have written previously, it is highly unlikely that the SFI, when it returns in 2026, will look much like the scheme just closed.  It may well not be open to all farms (being targeted on certain locations or farm sizes).  The options are likely to alter too as Defra looks for value-for-money in its reduced circumstances.

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With harvest fast approaching for many, and already started for some, we have updated the figures for our Loam Farm model.  This shows that the 2025 crop is likely to deliver another lacklustre set of returns on cereals farms.

The table below summarises the last two harvests and the one upcoming.  We have also added a new budget for the 2026 harvest year.  To recap, Loam Farm is a notional 600 hectare business that has been used since 1991 to track the fortunes of British combineable cropping farms.  It is based on real-life data.  It is partly owned and partly rented, has a working proprietor plus one full time member of staff and harvest casual.  It grows wheat, oats, beans and barley and has a SFI agreement (2024 version).  

The 2023 year was reasonable – although it looked poor at the time, in comparison with the two spectacular years that preceded it.  Harvest 2024 suffered from the very wet autumn 2023 through into spring 2024 reducing yields.  Grain prices were also lower than in the previous year.  This meant the farm made a loss from production last year and required the BPS and SFI to bring it back into surplus.  For the current year the weather has presented the opposite problem – it has been too dry through the spring.  This is forecast to result in yields again being lower than the farm’s average.  Prices have not improved since last year either.  It can also be seen that overhead cost continue to push up.  Overall, the Margin from Production is still negative, although slightly better than last year.  However, there has been a big drop in the BPS with the maximum £7,200 being received in 2025 equating to just £12 per Ha on Loam Farm.  SFI payments have increased a little as the farm ‘upgraded’ its agreement by going for some extra SFI 2024 options.  The overall Business Surplus is set to be lower than last year.

Farmers generally think ‘next harvest will be better’.  This may be true.  We cannot know the weather for next season, but a ‘reversion to the average’ sees output increase.  Variable costs are quite stable.  After two poor years the farm is cutting back slightly on investment which helps keep overheads in check by reducing depreciation.  However, the farm is budgeting £25,000 on drainage works to address some of the issues highlighted in the past couple of seasons.  The Margin from Production at least ends up as a positive.  It can be seen that the BPS for 2026 is down at £1 per Ha.  This follows Defra’s announcement that the maximum payment will be £600 per business in 2026 and 2027.  The overall Business Surplus improves but is still below the long-term average for this model farm.

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In terms of agricultural policy, the action over the past month has been in the trade sphere.  The UK has signed three important deals with (in chronological order) India, the US, and the EU.  These all have implications for agriculture which are set out in the following sections.  The UK Government has stated that its next target is to secure a deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

India

Announced on the 6th May, this was hailed as the most substantial trade deal for the UK since it left the EU.  Its key provisions relating to farming and food include:

• Lamb exports: India has eliminated its 33% tariff on UK lamb, providing immediate tariff-free access. India has a growing demand for high-quality lamb products although the UK will face competition from Australia and New Zealand
• Whisky and gin: tariffs on UK exports to India will be reduced from 150% to 75% immediately, with a further reduction to 40% over 10 years.  This has the potential to significantly boost exports. This would have positive implications for growers of malting barley across the UK
• Other UK agri-food exports: tariffs will also be reduced on UK exports such as salmon, chocolate, biscuits, and soft drinks.  This should further enhance their competitiveness in the Indian market, especially for higher quality niches
• Indian exports to the UK: the UK has agreed to remove tariffs on 99% of Indian exports, including agri-food products such as frozen prawns.  Importantly, such imports will have to meet UK sanitary and phytosanitary standards

The US

The UK and US deal was announced on 8th May.  This should lessen the effects of the US tariffs imposed in early April.  The deal covers various sectors, particularly automotive which is of prime importance to the UK Government.  The key agricultural provisions include:

• Beef Market Access: the agreement establishes a reciprocal tariff-free quota of 13,000 metric tonnes for hormone-free beef.  This allows both UK and US producers enhanced access to each other’s markets
• Bio-ethanol Imports: the UK has agreed to eliminate tariffs on up to 1.4 billion litres of US ethanol.  This move is anticipated to benefit US ethanol producers and is seen by UK industry stakeholders (e.g. NFU) as a significant threat as it removes the UK Global Tariff (£16 per hecto-litre (100 litres) – which equates to tariff of approximately 20%).  This puts into doubt the future of the Ensus and Vivergo plants in the North East
• Whisky: the ‘Universal’ 10% tariff imposed by the US on alcoholic beverages, including Scotch whisky, remains in place.  So UK whisky exporters have not gained any new advantages as a result of this deal
• Food Safety Standards: crucially, the UK maintains its ban on imports of hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken.

Both the UK Government and the US Administration claim that this is a significant new trade deal.  However, it was negotiated in haste and has been introduced to largely mitigate the impact of the tariffs announced by the US in early April; with some additional provisions relating to agriculture as outlined above.  It may be a staging post for further deals in the future. 

EU

The final deal announced this month was with the EU – on the 19th May.  It is seen as a ‘reset’ in relations after the wranglings of the last decade.  Importantly, the UK is not returning to the Single Market nor the Customs Union.  However, the deal suggests closer ties in many areas including defence, youth mobility, travel, and emissions trading.

The main point for farming is a Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement on food.  This should reduce friction on agri-food trade.  It includes the introduction of a common UK-EU SPS Zone.  This would facilitate the movement of animals, animal products, plants, and plant products between Great Britain (GB) and the EU.  This would result in minimal checks and certifications, and, in some cases, checks and certifications being removed altogether.  To allow this to happen, the UK has committed to aligning its SPS standards ‘dynamically’ with those of the EU.  This means that UK regulations will evolve in tandem with EU rules.  The details around this need to be finalised.  One example of an area of uncertainty is around gene editing – what if the UK presses-on with allowing food to be produced using this technology, but the EU does not?

 

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Defra is to re-open the SFI 2024 for those applicants who had started their application, but had not submitted it, before it was closed without notice on 11th March 2025.  A threatened legal challenge by the NFU asserting that Defra had acted illegally by suddenly closing the SFI without giving the 6-weeks notice period has made the Department do a (partial) U-turn.

In a written Ministerial Statement, Daniel Zeichner, has said applicants who started an SFI application within 2 months of 11th March 2025 (i.e. on or after 12th January) but did not submit it by that date will be given 6 weeks to complete an application. Defra has said there are about 3,000 businesses in this situation and it will contact them to confirm if they are eligible and, if so, what the next steps will be, including when the 6 weeks application window will open and close.  However, agreements will only be offered subject to the following restrictions;

• only one application may be submitted per farm business
• agreements will be offered up to a maximum value of £9,300 per annum for the duration of the agreement (excluding the SFI Management Payment).  Apparently this maximum value reflects the median average agreement value for existing SFI 2024 agreements.
• agreement holders will not be able to add more land to ‘rotational’ SFI actions after Year 1 of their agreement

Mr Zeichner has said there needs to be a cap on payments due to the budget for the SFI 2024 scheme having already been fully allocated, meaning any further agreements entered into under the SFI 2024 scheme will need to be funded from other areas of Defra’s departmental budget.  He has said ‘I have therefore borne in mind the need to avoid creating unfairness to others or undermining other important objectives by unreasonably diverting funds from the wider Farming and Countryside programme’.

In terms of the other groups of farmers who were told they would be able to submit an application after the closure date – farmers who were in the SFI Pilot, assisted digital applications, and applicants with known system issues that prevented them from submitting applications, according to the statement they will also be contacted shortly.

The Statement also refers to what might be available in the future – ‘SFI remains closed to new applications for the time being, pending the launch of the reformed SFI offer, which we will publish more detail about this summer.  Work on this offer is already well underway; we’re developing it in partnership with sector stakeholders and the scheme will target public funds more effectively to meet the needs of both farmers and the environment.’

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Baroness Minette Batters has been appointed to head Defra’s review into farm profitability.  The review will feed into the 25-Year Farming Roadmap as well as the Land Use Framework and the Food Strategy.  It covers England only.  Baroness Batters will be supported by a team of Defra officials – presumably the new ‘Farm Profitability Unit’ as announced by Steve Reed at the NFU Conference in February.  The review will also be consulting widely with the industry.

The position of Farming Profitability Review Lead is for six months, indicating the final report will be finalised sometime in September or October.  The report aims to make recommendations on policies both the Government and industry could implement to improve farm profitability.  It is highlighted that these must be ‘pragmatic’ and will look at the short, medium, and long term.  It is stated that this is an ‘internal report submitted to the Secretary of State for his review‘ – but presumably the results will be made public.

The full terms of reference can be found here – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-profitability-review-terms-of-reference/farming-profitability-review-terms-of-reference .  This sets out three main issues for Baroness Batters to consider;

• how farmers can reduce barriers to profitability, increase profit and manage their own risk to improve financial resilience, such as through embracing innovation, improving productivity, increasing market access and using risk management tools
• how the supply chain can support farm profitability such as through greater transparency, cooperation and ensuring a fairer distribution of risks, rewards and responsibilities
• whether there are other ancillary activities that farmers can undertake to support profitability and wider economic growth.

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Defra has announced the Farming Equipment and Technology Fund (FETF) will open for applications on the 29th May for just 6 weeks; closing on 10th July.  All three themes; Productivity, Slurry Management and Animal Health & Welfare will be open at the same time this year.  The FETF offers grants towards the cost of specific pieces of equipment and technology that have been identified by Defra to improve productivity, sustainability and animal health and welfare.

The minimum grant funding per application is £1,000, up to a maximum of £25,000 per theme.  The scheme is not ‘first-come, first-served’ but it is competitive.  Once the application window is closed, all applications will be scored (see below).  Applicants may not receive some or any funding depending on how high their application scores.  In total there is £30m to support the Productivity and Slurry Management themes and a further £16.7m of funding for the Animal Health and Welfare theme.

Scheme guidance is available now to help applicants prepare in advance and can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-2025   But note, applicants must not buy any items in their application before they receive a Grant Funding Agreement; it may be possible to give a supplier a refundable deposit – see scheme guidance.  There is a set ‘list’ of equipment available and Defra has calculated an expected average cost for each item.

Successful applicants will receive a grant amount of 40% or 50% towards either:

• the average cost of the item – if an item costs you the same or more than the expected average cost in the item lists, or
• the actual cost you pay for the item – if an item costs you less than the expected average cost in the item lists

An item’s expected average cost and grant amount is available in the specification lists, the links to these are provided below;

• Productivity – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-2025/productivity-items-and-specifications-farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-fetf-2025
• Slurry Management – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-2025/slurry-items-and-specifications-farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-fetf-2025
• Animal Health & Welfare – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-2025/animal-health-and-welfare-items-and-specifications-farming-equipment-and-technology-fund-fetf-2025

The list also includes a score for each item; it is possible to increase an application’s score.  For an Animal Health and Welfare grant, a score can be increased by 20% if the applicant can provide evidence that they have discussed their FETF 2025 application with a vet.   When applying for a Productivity or Slurry grant if the SBI has received less than £10,000 of Productivity and Slurry funding from any previous FETF rounds, this can increase the application score by 25%.

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Strong livestock prices and lower feed costs sees Meadow Farm forecast to make a profit from production for only the second time in it’s history in 2025/26.  However, its SFI agreement is important in boosting overall farm profitability.  Any similar business that has missed-the-boat on the SFI will be in a far less comfortable position.

Meadow Farm is a notional 154-hectare (380 acre) beef and sheep holding in the Midlands.  It consists of grassland, with wheat and barley mainly for livestock feed.  There are 60 spring-calving suckler cows with all progeny finished, a dairy bull beef enterprise and a 500-ewe breeding flock.

The 2022/23 year was challenging; although output prices had started to rise (particularly for sheep), input costs increased substantially (feed costs were especially expensive).  Cuts to the BPS meant the overall farm made a loss.  In 2023/24, the gross margin improved due to lower costs and stronger livestock prices.  Overhead costs continued to drift upwards.  The farm again made a loss from production although it was much lower than the previous year.

The 2024/25 year, just finishing, shows an improvement in output once more.  Meadow Farm sells its finished stock in the autumn, so will not have experienced the significant rise in cattle prices since the turn of the year.  Some of the higher variable costs are due to the farm entering the SFI (i.e. herbal ley establishment).   The extra income from the SFI offsets the decline of the BPS and the business profitability improves.

Farmgate cattle prices are exceptionally high currently.  Even using a ‘conservative’ budgeting price compared to the current high prices, for the 2025/26 year about to commence, Meadow Farm is budgeted to make a margin from production.  This is for only the second time (previously in 2021/2022).  However, a (bigger) reduction in the BPS, sees business surplus, similar to the year just finishing.

This farm entered the SFI (2023 version) this time last year.  However, we have modelled an alternative scenario where the farm’s CS agreement carried on until the end of 2024.  This meant it was still working-up its SFI application when the scheme closed on 11^th March.  In this situation, Meadow Farm would be looking at a Business Surplus of just £113 per Ha.  Also, it is not clear what opportunities, if any, may be there in the future for farms like this to enter into environmental agreements.  There is a clear split between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ when it comes to the SFI.   

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The SFI Expanded Offer (SFI 2024) was suddenly closed on the evening of the 11th March.  Defra has said all existing SFI agreement holders will continue to be paid under the terms of their agreement for its duration.  This means those who submitted their application earlier this year will be paid until 2028.  For many others who will be at different stages in the application process the situation is;

• If you have been offered an agreement, but not yet accepted it, you need to accept you offer within 10 working days of it being offered, if you don’t, your agreement offer may be withdrawn. 
• Where an SFI application has been submitted but no agreement has yet been offered these should be offered as long as the application is eligible (although there is a conflict with the wording in the blog and the press release from Defra with the latter saying these will be ‘considered’.)
• For those who have started an application, but had not submitted it before applications closed, they will not be able to submit the application.  The only exceptions to this are a small group of farmers who were blocked from submitting their applications because they had requested ‘assisted digital’ support from the RPA to apply or due to a system fault.  Defra has given a bit of clarification as to what it is viewing as a ‘system fault’ for the purposes of these exceptions.  This means that, prior to the scheme closing at 6pm on 11th March;
  
  • an application had been started and a system issue prevented the application from being submitted, and
  • the applicant (or their agent) had informed RPA, either by calling the Helpline or by emailing Rural Payments of this issue.

  Where this is the case, RPA has said it will be contacting applicants to let them know when it will be possible to submit their application.  It has also said that if an applicant thinks they fall under this ‘exception’ but their application has been rejected on the system then they can contact RPA either by the Helpline or via email and these will be looked into on a case-by-case basis.

• For those taking part in the the SFI Pilot, they will be able to apply when their pilot agreement ends, or if the agreement has already  finished but they haven’t submitted an application for the expanded SFI offer yet, they will still be able to apply. The RPA will let them know how to do this shortly.

Defra has said now is the time for a ‘reset’ and there will be a revised offering with details being announced in summer 2025, ‘building on lessons learned and stakeholder feedback’.  A budget for the scheme will be confirmed in the Spending Review this summer, it has also said the revised offering will direct funding where there is ‘greatest potential to do more on nature and where there is the least ability to access decent returns from agricultural markets, or other sources of investment, as set out in the Land Use Framework’.

This seems to indicate the scheme will not be returning in the same guise as SFI 2024.  Almost certainly, many of the options deemed ‘lower-value’ (such as the planning elements) will be dropped.  It may also not be a universal scheme.  Geographical targeting could well see priority given to areas like National Parks and National Landscapes (previously AONBs).     

It appears that Defra has been surprised by the popularity of the scheme and the budget was all allocated.  It seems particularly poor administration not to be able to regularly monitor the uptake of the scheme and provide some indication of whether budget limits were being approached.  Indeed, a specific budget had never been set out for the SFI, so it is not surprising that the industry is confused by this ‘budget’ being reached.

The sudden closure has been a massive blow to many who will have spent time and money preparing schemes to now not be able to submit them when they have been told applications can be made ‘all year round’.  This will only further erode English farmers’ trust in the Government.  Especially as the promise to provide 6-weeks’ notice of any changes in schemes has again been ignored. 

Rotational Declarations

With the closure of the SFI, current agreement holders are advised to make sure they consider their Rotational Declaration carefully.  Land managers are reminded that under the scheme rules they are allowed to reduce their Rotational options by 50% in years two and three.   But, they are also allowed to increase the area.  With Defra previously ‘pushing’ for multiple agreements as a way for farmers to increase their area, some may not have fully considered their Rotational Declaration, thinking they could add land on another agreement.  They will be restricted to the Rotational options already being claimed for in their existing agreement but for some this may be a way of increasing land in the SFI.  Unless scheme rules suddenly change…………

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Capital grants will be available again in England after the schemes were closed in the autumn due to budget over-runs.  This was included in a set of announcements made by Defra Secretary of State Steve Reed in a speech at the NFU Annual Conference in February.  They are aimed at boosting the profitability of the farming sector.

The announcements are;

• Capital Grants (existing) – 4,000 applications to this scheme (previously called Countryside Stewardship capital grants) were suspended in November due to budget pressures.  It is stated that these will be processed in full when the new 2025/26 financial year starts.
• Capital Grants (new) – the scheme will open again ‘later this year’.  To limit spending, there will be a a cap of £25,000 for applications to the water quality, air quality and flood management themes.  The trees and boundaries theme will have a limit of £35,000.  There is a total budget of £45m.
• Farm Equipment & Technology Fund (FETF) – another round is due to open in the spring.  This is set to be the final round of the scheme however.   The FETF has not been open since last spring.  There will be a budget of £30m for the Productivity and Slurry Management items, and £16.7m for Animal Health and Welfare.  The announcement states that grants from £1,000 to £25,000 will be available; previously Productivity and Slurry Management Grants were up to a maximum of £50,000.
  
• Other Grants – There has been no announcement regarding the ‘larger’ capital grants which were available under the Farming Investment Fund (FIF) (Improving Productivity, Adding Value, Livestock Housing, Water Management etc).  The Farming Innovation Programme will reopen with funding of £42.5m.  This is a competitive scheme which offers grants for research and development projects that benefit farmers, growers and foresters.  It will focus on the themes of precsion breeding and net zero.  A new funding stream worth £20m called Accelerating Development of Practices and Technologies (ADOPT) will fund innovation.
• Farming in Protected Landscapes (FiPL) – the scheme is to be extended to 2026.  No indication on budget has been provided.
• HLS – those with old agreements under this scheme rolling-on will see payment rates increase.  Agreement holders will be written to by the end of April.
• Animal Health and Welfare – the current ‘Pathway’ will be amended so there is more flexibility for farmers to have funded vet visits for multiple species.
• Seasonal Workers Scheme (SWS) – the Seasonal Worker visa route will be extended for five more years.  The quota will be reviewed annually, although it looks like this will be downwards as it talks about ‘supporting farms while gradually reducing visa numbers as we develop alternative solutions’.
• Procurement – a new requirement for Government catering contracts to favour high-quality, high-welfare products from local farms.  The Government’s ambition is for at least 50% of food supplied into the £5 billion public sector catering contracts to be from British producers or those certified to higher environmental standards.
• Trade deals – it is stated that the Government will uphold and protect the UK’s high environmental and animal welfare standards in future trade deals (a very easy announcment to make and with no cost).
• Defra – a ‘Farming Profitability Unit’ will be created in the Department.  Its remit is not yet clear.  
• Biosecurity – £200 million will be invested to improve resilience against animal disease.  The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) animal health facility at Weybridge will be turned into a new National Biosecurity Centre.

Further details are awaited, particularly on opening dates for the capital grants.  Farmers will be pleased to hear of the re-opening, although it will be interesting to see what/if items have been removed from the ‘lists’.  We will endeavour to keep readers updated.

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Old crop UK feed wheat futures prices (May-25) declined through February.  There has been little news to support prices for some time.  Large opening stocks, high levels of imports and subdued demand will mean the current trend likely continues.  The large import levels of milling wheat in particular have reduced the milling wheat premium from an early season peak of £60 per tonne to around £25 now.

Whilst old crop prices have fallen, new crop prices (Nov-25) have increased, driven by rising global grain markets.  US maize futures in particular have increased considerably in recent months.  Speculative traders (managed money funds) have bought considerable volumes of maize futures, elevating prices.  The weather outlook for maize production in both North and South America had been in question, including excess rainfall in Brazil.  In the main maize producing region of Mato Grosso, planting of maize is more than eight percentage points behind the five-year average.  However, the forecast is for improved weather.

The US weather has also been a key focus.  Key wheat producing states in the US have been on the receiving end of temperatures as much as 15C below normal for February. However, this picture is also improving.  Additionally, the current market price dynamics for maize and soyabeans in the US is expected to drive an increase in maize planting for 2025.  The price gap between old and new crop could close quickly if the funds started selling.

In the short term, there has been support for UK feed barley prices with export demand driving selling opportunities.  This has been much-needed owing to the surplus of out-of-specification malting barley adding to the feed heap from harvest 2024.

One positive aspect for arable markets is the strength of the oilseed rape price.  That said, the crop area has declined significantly in recent years meaning the price support will only benefit the minority of cereals farmers still growing the crop.  In addition, the positive price movement in oilseed rape may not be enough to tempt nervous growers of the crop for 2025 harvest to sell.

A final point worth noting is the direction of fertiliser prices.  Natural gas prices, a key input in the production of ammonium nitrate, hit the highest point since October 2023 in February.  Prices have fallen back, but remain almost twice as high as the same point last year.  So far we have seen an increase in nitrogen prices in the UK market in 2025, but not to the same level as has been observed on the Continent.

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A review of the UK’s farm assurance schemes has been published.  The Review was commissioned by the UK’s farming unions and the AHDB in the wake of Red Tractor’s failed plans to introduce the Greener Farmers Commitment back in March 2024.  It was undertaken by Dr. David Llewellyn, Mark Suthern, Katrina Williams and James Withers.

The Review, which can be found at https://promar-international.com/farm-assurance-review/ concludes ‘…Farm Assurance in the UK is a necessary and important component of the food production landscape and should be retained by the farming and food production sectors, of which and to which, it is a significant asset‘ but it also goes onto say ‘However, farm assurance can and must be improved’.  It found that ‘in spite of the support for, and the benefits of, farm assurance in principle, there is much that is not right in practice. 

The Review identified nine strategic recommendations.  Within each recommendation there are a number of ‘practical’ and ‘actionable’ recommendations (56 in total).  The headline recommendations are;

• On-farm audits must be reduced, simplified and delivered more consistently
• There must be a transformational step forward in embracing technology and managing data to deliver more effective farm assurance with greater added value for all
• Farm assurance schemes need to reset and/or restate their decision-making structures to establish farmers as the driving voice in standards development
• A new industry-led initiative must set out the future environmental ambitions for farm assurance, establishing this as an area of competitive advantage for UK farming
• The inclusion of regulatory requirements within farm assurance standards and audits should be conditional on government and regulators agreeing a form of ‘earned recognition’
• There must be greater coordination in the way in which farm assurance operates across the UK
• Farm assurance schemes must better position the UK farming industry in world food markets and in competition with imported food
• All farm assurance schemes must review, and, where necessary, improve their methods of communication with the farming industry
• The Red Tractor scheme must complete the implementation of recommendations in the Campbell Tickell report.

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The figures for our ‘Friesian Farm’ dairy model have been updated for the Dairy Tech show and ahead of our spring Seminars.  The table below shows the actual results for the last two years, the estimate for the current year, and a budget for the upcoming 2025/26 season.

To recap, Friesian Farm is a notional 220+ cow business in the Midlands with a milk contract on a constituent basis.  It has a year-round calving system, like much of the UK industry, but it is trying to maximise yield from forage.  The figures are for milk years – April to March.

It can be seen that the milk price has moved up nicely for the 2024/25 year compared to the previous one – albeit not back to the highs of 2022/23.  It is forecast that there will be a slight firming of milk values again through into 2025/26.

One of the larger changes for the current year, compared with 2023/24 is the increase in overhead costs.  One of the main drivers of this is the continued upwards pressure on dairy wages.  The increase has also been driven by re-investment needs of the business, plus a general inflationary environment on costs.

Despite this, however, the better milk price, coupled with very good cull and calf prices, means the profitability of this dairy business is much improved this year.

The forecast for 2025/26 is for returns to decline a little.  This is largely driven by further overhead cost increases.  It can also be seen that the contribution of the BPS falls to very low levels.  This is a result of payments to farms in England being ‘capped’ at £7,200 for 2025.

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