UK Supply and Demand 2015/16

The first official estimates for supply and demand of cereals has been published.  Wheat availability is up by 1% on the 2014/15 year, to 19.82 million tonnes.  Imports are forecast to drop buy 26% to 1.223Mt.  Although imports are falling there are no estimates made for exports, but with a strong Pound against the Euroa fall is likely.  Consumption of wheat is estimated at 7.176Mt, a 5% fall on 2014/15. This is predominately due to reduced demand from the bioethanol industry and distillers.

Barley availability for 2015/16 is forecast 5% higher than the previous season.  With consumption 5% lower, prices could struggle throughout the season.  Reduced consumption for maize and oats, 20% and 9% respectively, is also forecast.

Total demand for cereals for animal feed drops by around 2%.  The increased demand from pig and poultry sectors is offset by a fall in demand from sheep, beef and dairy industries.  However weather over the winter can have a big effect on demand in this sector.  The full publication can be found at http://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/media/773842/25-NOV-BALANCE-SHEET-FINAL.pdf