Estimating NTM Costs for GB Agri-Food Exports to the EU

Client: Defra

Delivered in collaboration with Trade Facilitation Consulting Ltd

Aim and Objectives:

The project aimed to quantify the cost impact of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on agri-food and fisheries exports from Great Britain to the EU following the UK’s departure from the Single Market and Customs Union. Specific objectives included:

• Identify what specific processes must be followed when currently exporting to the EU (i.e. GB→EU) and the likely costs involved in a Low, Medium, and High scenario.
• Develop a set of quantitative estimates resulting from specific NTMs for each step in the trade process for each agri-food and fisheries product within scope. Provide these estimates in terms of:
  • Ad Valorem Equivalents (AVEs)
  • Cost per tonne
  • Cost per load (container) estimates (where applicable).
• Ascertain the impact of NTMs on specific agri-food supply chains.
• Present the findings (via a report and MS Excel models) to Defra and address related questions.

What We Delivered:

• A detailed 125-page report which;
  • Quantified the impact of NTMs for over 80 agri-food and fisheries products (based on 6-digit commodity codes) on both a ‘fully-checked load’ (subject to full range of regulatory checks) and on a probabilistic basis, covering key transport modes (e.g. Roll-on, Roll-off (RoRo) and Lift-on, Lift-off (LoLo). For each product, approximately 25-30 different cost sub-categories were assessed.
  • Provided details of a comprehensive Evidence Review, encompassing over 40 studies, which investigated NTMs in agri-food trade, and summarised their key findings in a series of concise Tables.
  • Developed a series of process maps outlining the key steps in the export of agri-food produce from GB to the EU. This built upon a previous set of process maps which were compiled back in 2018 which also examined imports into the UK (EU) from third countries.
• A comprehensive MS-Excel based NTMs Model setting out the cost estimates by each cost-subcategory which can subsequently be refined by the client as new information becomes available.
• Detailed breakdown of UK trade with EU and non-EU regions on both a value and tonnage basis.
• Stakeholder engagement through 57 expert interviews and three industry workshops, which validated the modelling approach and estimates.
• Presentation of findings to Defra officials and other government stakeholders.

Skills & Expertise Developed:

• Highly detailed understanding of NTMs in UK agri-food resulting from an extensive evidence review of previous studies, in-depth discussions with industry experts, and detailed economic modelling exercises which built upon previous studies that Andersons undertook since 2016, including a previous 2018-19 study for Defra.
• A robust framework for quantifying NTMs at both commodity and sector level, adaptable to other trade routes and sectors as well as having the potential to be applied by businesses to understand the impact of NTMs on their operations.
• Strong understanding of the impacts of NTMs at various stages of the supply chain encompassing farm, processing, logistics and retailing levels.
• Enhanced workshops’ facilitation expertise to secure stakeholder feedback and refine model outputs.

Further Information

The final report and outputs from both the 2024–25 and 2018–19 studies can be accessed via Defra’s Science Search portal: https://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/ProjectDetails?ProjectId=21865