NFU Cereals Survey

Initial results form the NFU’s harvest survey show that wheat yields were far better than looked likely during the spring.  However, a much reduced area planted means that the 2013 crop will be lower again than the 2012 one, and the UK will remain a net importer of wheat.

The NFU results (for England only at present) forecast average wheat yields to be up 16% on last year at 7.8 tonnes per Ha.  This yield is slightly above the DEFRA five-year average for 2008 to 2012.  However, the planted area is down 19% on last year – we reported on this drop last month with the publication of the initial DEFRA June Survey results for England.  The 2013 planted area of 1.51m hectares is 17% down on the five-year average. 

With these figures likely to be mirrored across the UK, the total 2013 wheat harvest is put by most traders to be in the range 12 to 12.5 m tonnes.  This is over a million tonnes less than the 2012 harvest of 13.26m tonnes.  Grain quality is much better than last year, meaning there is more domestic milling wheat on the market.  A higher barley harvest will, to a certain extent, offset the drop in wheat.  There is also significant carry-over of grain from the 2012 harvest year due to the large volume of imports.  All these factors are contributing to lacklustre grain prices despite the far smaller UK crop likely.  By far the biggest issue though is the fall in values on world markets.  This has been amplified in recent weeks by a strengthening of Sterling, making UK grain less competitive.

DEFRA will publish its provisional UK-wide results on crop areas and yields on the 17^th October.