NFU Brexit Report

The NFU has published a study into the impact on British agriculture of Brexit.  Rather than come out with a simple ‘leave’ or ‘stay’ conclusion the report models a number of different scenarios in terms of future trade relations with the EU and farm support if the UK left the EU.  These are compared with the current status quo arrangements.  The full report can be found via – http://www.nfuonline.com/news/eu-referendum/eu-referendum-must-read/nfu-impact-assessment-ahead-of-eu-referendum-vote/ 

Some scenarios foresee UK farmgate prices actually rising as agricultural trade declines as the policies effectively become more ‘protectionist’ on exit.  However, the scenario thought most likely actually see the UK liberalise trade after Brexit with a negative effect on prices and incomes.  Future farm profits are very dependent on the level of future support offered by the UK government.  Three options are modelled – 100% of current levels of Direct Payments, support halving, and Direct Payments being scrapped completely.  At the most extreme scenario, with trade liberalisation and zero direct payments the average farm income is forecast to decline by €36,000.

The NFU Council will decide in mid-April whether the organisation will take a formal position ahead of the referendum.  The organisation has incurred some criticism for where it has commissioned the report from – it was undertaken by Wageningen University in the Netherlands. it has been suggested that it seems slightly hypocritical to ask UK consumers to ‘buy British’ when it comes to food, but then the NFU cannot find a domestic organisation to undertake its research!