Milk Production Soars May 20, 2014 12:00 am Provisional figures from the RPA for April show no let-up in milk production. Total deliveries for the first month of the new quota year reached 1,277.1m litres compared to 1,111.9m litres in 2013; an increase of 14.85%. However, it must be remembered that last April saw a particularly low output. Even so, it is 10.40% higher than the five year average of 1,156.78m litres. By contrast, and as a result of the strong production, Butterfat levels were 4.01% compared to 4.10% a year earlier. This is an exceptionally strong start to the year and it may be that the spring peak has come earlier this year. It remains to be seen how long this pace of production can continue. Although it is very early days this level of production has made many think about quota levels. The graph below shows The Andersons Centre’s (TAC) current estimate of 2014/15 production together with other percentage increases compared to last year’s production. These are; 5.4% – the average increase seen during the 2013/14 quota year compared to 2012/13 10.8% – the increase for the last six months of the 2013/14 compared to a year earlier when output was growing strongly 14.85% – as set out above, the April year-on-year increase and the record monthly improvement It can be seen to reach national quota, in its final year, we would have to average 12.1% more over the entire year compared to 2013/14. Whilst this is just about possible, it looks highly unlikely. The big percentage increases seen recently are against months a year earlier where output was depressed. As we move through the year this will no longer be the case. Indeed, we don’t expect this May’s production to show anything like a 15% increase on last year, as in May 2013 production started to improve from its previous slump. We will be keeping an eye on the situation and reporting accordingly. 2014/15 Milk Production (increases based on 2013/14 milk year, butterfat adjusted)
