Harvest is now complete for most in the south of Great Britain. As discussed elsewhere, the overall theme of harvest 2025 is ‘variability’ – some farms have had acceptable results whilst others have seen pretty disasterous yields. Even on the same farm there has been big differences dpending on soil type, crop and if a shower arrived at the right time. We seem to have spoken about variability a lot for the past few harvests. This is perhaps an effect of climate change. It makes generalised comments about a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ harvest much less relevant.
All this needs to be remembered when looking at the figures for Loam Farm. These have been updated for the actual yields seen from harvest 2025 and likely prices for the 2025 and 2026 year. Loam Farm is located in the East of England, so was affected by the dry spring. However, as the name suggests, its soil type means yields were impacted less than farms on lighter soils. The table below sets out the results for the last two harvests, a provisonal figure for 2025, and a forecast for the 2026 season.
Loam Farm is a notional 600 hectare business that has been used since 1991 to track the fortunes of British combinable cropping farms. It is based on real-life data. It is partly owned and partly rented, has a working proprietor plus one full time member of staff and harvest casual. It grows wheat, oats, beans and barley and has a SFI agreement (2024 version).
The 2025 results have deteriorated since the last update in the late spring due to a combination of lower yields and falling markets. It results in a Margin from Production even lower than last year’s poor outcome. With less support from a much-reduced BPS, the farm tips into an overall loss making position.
This will be reflective of many combinable crop farms – facing a second year of low or negative returns. Some businesses (although not Loam Farm) also had a poor 2023 harvest as well. The cumulative effect of this is starting to be seen in farm finances. However, to reiterate the point above, not all businesses will be in the same postion.
Looking ahead to 2026 the assumption is that yields will return to average levels. Despite lacklustre forward markets this improves output and gross margin. The farm returns to making a margin (albeit small) from production. The BPS, at a maximum of £600, has become an irrelevance. The SFI provides a useful boost to income, but the 2026 year is the final one for the farm’s ‘core’ 2023 agreement. What support might be available for 2027 onwards is another uncertainty for this business.
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