Harvest Update August 2014

Good harvest progress was made during the first half of August, but this then slowed as some areas were affected by showers.  It is estimated that around 2/3rds of the total harvest is now complete.  Wheat yields have been overall impressive, albeit not at highest quality or specification.  With a harvest of 16.5-17 million tonnes (8.25 to 8.50 tonnes per Ha) the UK will be in a position to export about 3 million tonnes of wheat, assuming imports of about 1 million tonnes (of high-quality wheat) as usual.

France has harvested a large crop, but of poor quality.  This will play into the hands of UK farmers with high specification and good quality milling wheats, but less so for those selling into the feed market.  Further afield, reports suggest the US maize crop is looking promising too, again likely to reflect on the feed wheat value.  Also, the political unrest in Ukraine has unsettled some markets, with Ukrainian millers requesting export bans, suppliers claiming inputs are not getting through and so on.  With EU export bans to Russia, the market economics and trade flows are likely to be disrupted over the coming year if the disputes continue.  It is not yet entirely clear whether this will play into the hands of the buyer or seller.

Winter barley harvest is complete, average yields have been around 7.2-7.4t per Ha.  The spring barley harvest is also progressing well; yields have been in the region of 6.0t per Ha.  Malting premiums have come back some way since last month, despite a small firming of the feed barley market place over the same period.  The fall of feed wheat has not been reflected here.

Overall, most farmers have been quietly satisfied with their oilseed rape yields too.  Ex-farm prices have moved upwards over August, as crushers have increased their buying, based on slightly improved margins. However, field walkers in the US have been forecasting a high soybean harvest yield this year and this could put downwards pressure back on the UK values once again.

Pulse yields have pleased most growers, although the quality of the harvest is not as high as last years’.  Beatle damage is affecting the premium and crucially exportability of the crop for later in the season.  If there is not sufficient high quality bean to export to the North African buyers, this will place substantial downward pressure on prices.  Some are already saying the the pulse prices have been over-valued in the last season and that correction is about to take place as a result of the quality samples assessed so far.