Grain Markets March 2026

The global grain market remains well supplied.  March’s supply and demand estimates reinforce this; the USDA increased global grain ending stocks for the 2025 harvest season by more than six million tonnes, and the International Grains Council (IGC) increased its forecast by 1 million tonnes.  The well-supplied nature of global grain supply and demand is keeping prices flat.

In contrast, Oilseed rape markets have rallied, following crude oil higher.  The increased cost of crude oil makes blending vegetable oils into biodiesel more attractive, increasing demand for oilseed rape in turn.  UK ex-farm oilseed rape prices reached an 11-month high of £440 per tonne in mid-March.

The IGC also published its first forecast of 2026/27 supply and demand in March (2026 harvest).  The forecasts largely reflect the current balance of prices between maize and soyabeans – the ratio of the two prices has a large impact on plantings in the US.  With soyabeans favourably priced, maize production is forecast to fall, globally, by 17 million tonnes.  Meanwhile, soyabean production is forecast to rise by 16 million tonnes.

The IGC also forecasts a sharp decline in wheat production (down 23 million tonnes).  The shifts in supply, combined with trend increases in consumption results in tighter ending stocks for grain and stable ending stocks for soyabeans.  Close attention will be paid to crop conditions moving forwards, with signs of further tightening adding support to grain futures.

Updated forecasts of UK cereal and oilseed areas have also been provided by the collection of EU Grain Trade Associations, Coceral.  The UK wheat area is forecast at 1.705 million hectares, fractionally ahead of the AHDB Early Bird Survey forecasts published in December. The forecasts include a prediction of yield, which is 5% ahead of the five-year average.  Oilseed rape production is forecast at more than one million tonnes, if realised this would be the highest OSR production level since 2023.

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