FAO 2013 Harvest Forecast

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is forecasting a record coarse grains harvest in 2013.  The organisation is forecasting global coarse grain production in 2013 to be 1,266 million tonnes, 9.3% above the previous record set in 2011.  Maize output is forecast to be up by 10% compared to last year’s levels accounting for about 960 million tonnes.  The increase is mainly expected to come from the United States, already the world’s largest producer, maize plantings in the country are expected to reach their highest levels since 1936.

In addition the FAO is forecasting global wheat production in 2013 to be 5.4% higher than in 2012 at 695 million tonnes, just 6 million tonnes less than the record production in 2011.  Meanwhile world cereal utilisation is expected to remain similar to year earlier levels at 2,332 tonnes as high prices take their toll, including demand for ethanol production.  Stocks are forecast to close at 505 million tonnes, some 3% below their opening levels, with world cereal trade expected to fall by 4% (13 million tonnes) compared to 2011/12.

FAO forecasts are based on the assumption that the weather will be more ‘normal’ than in 2012. We note much of the maize crop is yet to be drilled, so a yield estimate will be solely based on statistics and previous years’ track records. We also recognise that it would be rather unlikely to have global growing conditions as poor as last year, especially in the US Midwest.