Early Bird Survey November 24, 2015 12:00 am The AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) has been published. It shows the wheat area remaining static but a decline in both the oilseed rape and winter barley area. The area of spring barley and pulses is forecast to rise. The survey is undertaken by the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and The Andersons Centre each autumn and in the past has provided accurate figures at an early stage in the cropping year. Data is gathered from 267,000 hectares of arable land across GB to assess national cropping intentions. The table below shows the estimated crop areas for 2016 when the EBS results are overlaid onto the UK provisional June 2015 crop area figures. Early Bird Survey. Estimates of UK crop areas for harvest 2016 Thousand Hectares DEFRA June Survey 2015 EBS Forecast Harvest 2016 Change All Wheat 1,833 1,825 0% Winter Barley 442 424 -4% Spring Barley 658 727 10% Oats 131 148 13% Other Cereals 36 63 75% OSR 654 565 -14% Other Oilseeds 18 21 16% Pulses 211 242 15% Arable Fallow 193 197 2% Other Crops on Arable Land * 344 364 6% Total 4,520 4,532 * S Beet, potatoes, maize, vegetables, roots, other stock feed Source: AHDB/DEFRA/The Andersons Centre The results show that the wheat area is to remain pretty similar to last year at 1.83 million hectares, this is however 2% below the five-year average. The wheat area includes spring wheat which anecdotally is reported to be rising. Winter barley is forecast to decline by 4% but spring barley is estimated to increase by 10%. This is the highest area of spring barley since 2009 (apart from 2013 when poor planting conditions in autumn 2012 led to an increase in spring cropping). This autumn drilling conditions in most parts of the UK have been ideal, which meant that the majority of planned winter cropping should have taken place before the rain started to fall towards the end of October. These sorts of conditions usually see high winter wheat and winter OSR plantings. The increase in spring cropping is therefore due to reasons other than poor drilling conditions and is more than likely due to black grass control. The size of the decline in the area oilseed rape plantings is quite surprising, especially as prices for pulses, the main alternative break crop, have fallen significantly since the spring. If the area is realised it will be the lowest area since 2009 and 19% below the five-year average. The removal of plant protection products (PPPs) and the challenge this is causing on controlling pests in the crop has been well documented and appears to be taking its toll on producers. Even though prices for pulses have fallen considerably, the pulse area is forecast to rise by 15% this year after a significant increase last year. It appears that the contribution pulses make to a farm’s Ecological Focus Area (EFA) requirements is having a significant impact on producers’ cropping choices. The increase in ‘other crops’ appears to mainly driven by a rise in maize plantings and temporary grass destined for anaerobic digestion plants.
