Brexit Update

A number of noteworthy announcements have taken place this weekend as the Conservative party conference gets into gear.  Most significantly, we now know that the famed Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017, at which point formal negotiations with the EU will officially commence.  This announcement has been welcomed by the EU Institutions with Donald Tusk thanking the UK government for the ‘clarity’ on the start of the Brexit talks, but also added that the EU 27 would engage to safeguard its interests ‘once Article 50 is triggered’.  Member State governments such as Ireland have also welcomed the development and stated that the timing was in line with their expectations.  Whilst the exact date is still to be determined, we now know that between 1^st January and 31^st March, the UK will have formally begun the Brexit process.  This means that if the exit negotiations run in accordance with the schedule set-out in the Lisbon Treaty, the UK could formally leave the EU in early 2019.

The other noteworthy, if unsurprising, announcement is that Theresa May will introduce a ‘Great Repeal Bill’.  Despite the hyperbolic title, this is really just a bit of legal administration, which will remove the European Communities Act of 1972 from the statue book and enshrine all existing EU legislation into UK law.  From there, the UK government will review each piece of EU legislation to decide whether it will keep, amend or discard it.  Theresa May was keen to point out that as a result of this initiative, the UK would no longer be subject to control by European Institutions such as the European Courts of Justice.  She also made clear that, although she does not wish to stop all migration from the EU, she wants the UK to exert control over who is admitted.  This appears incompatible with the EU’s free-movement rules and hints towards the UK being outside of the Single Market (i.e. ‘Hard Brexit’). However, such a stance is unsurprising at the outset of what will be a very complex and challenging negotiating process.

The Great Repeal Bill is scheduled to be announced in the next Queen’s speech and would come before Parliament sometime between April 2017 and March 2018.  It would become effective upon the UK’s formal exit from the European Union.  This move is the obvious and most logical step for the government to take, because the task of extricating the UK from the European Union and forging a new relationship is mammoth in itself.  If every piece of EU legislation had to be reviewed individually in parallel with this process, the task would be insurmountable.

From an agricultural perspective, the Great Repeal Bill will give rise to a number of questions, particularly around the devolved administrations.  In terms of the Common Agricultural Policy, as things stand, the Scottish Government is primarily answerable to Brussels.  How will thischange under the Great Repeal Bill?  Will Scotland be answerable to Westminster or will agricultural policy remain a fully devolved matter?  One would expect the Scottish Nationalist Party to push hard for agricultural policy to be devolved and this could represent a tricky balancing act for Theresa May as she strives to deliver Brexit whilst seeking to make it as palatable as possible for the likes of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The Brexit blanks are beginning to get filled, but much remains to be decided.  The Autumn Statement, due on 23^rd November, may reveal some more detail – especially in terms of the financial aspects of Brexit.