As harvest progresses in the UK, grain prices have continued to slide. The value of UK November 2024 UK feed wheat futures reached the lowest point for the contract since March 2024, although spot prices remain ahead of those levels. The full picture for grain, oilseed and pulse prices is tracked monthly in our Key Farm Facts.
The Andersons Centre has been carrying out harvest reporting for AHDB throughout the course of the summer. The latest harvest report was published on Friday 16th August. This showed that the wheat harvest was 37% complete; significant progress has been made in the weeks since then and is now nearing completion in much of Eastern England and the Midlands. Wheat yields so far are 7% down on the five-year average across the UK. There has been significant regional variation, with yields generally better for winter crops in East Anglia, and poorer in the Midlands. This is perhaps not surprising given the challenges during planting and crop development this season.
Spring crop harvesting is also well underway across much of England. Early signs suggest that spring crops are performing better, comparatively, than winter crops. Yields and grain sizes have been promising and malting quality of barley samples has been good. The lack of sunlight through crop development has led to low levels of nitrogen.
While low nitrogen is good for malting barley, the same cannot be said for milling wheat. Low protein content has been a feature of milling wheat samples. This has led to continued strength in milling premiums. That said, poor protein is more manageable for millers than last year’s Hagberg quality challenge as it can be blended to acceptable levels. This may result in a fall in premiums through the season.
The direction of global grain prices is driven by the balance of global supply and demand. The United States Department of Agriculture made unexpectedly large upward revisions to maize and soyabean production estimates in August. The trade had expected increases of 0.75% and 0.05% to soyabean and maize production, respectively. The USDA increased their forecasts by 3.48% and 0.29%, respectively. The size of the change is relatively small but, being greater than traders expected, led to a decision to sell more, leading to a fall in prices.
Domestically, pressure is also coming from increased grain stocks which have been carried through harvest. On-farm stocks are estimated at 1.16 million tonnes and more than 1 million tonnes of merchant, ports and co-operative stocks. According to AHDB this figure is 89% above the five-year average level. This reflects both the expectation of a smaller 2024 by the trade, and also the direction of prices this season leading to a lack of farmer selling.
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