2013 Lamb Crop Forecast May 16, 2013 12:00 am EBLEX, the levy body for English beef and lamb, has revised down its UK lamb forecast for 2013. Earlier estimates (see Bulletin 03 (13)) had put the lamb crop at similar levels to 2012; it was expected that the larger breeding flock would offset a fall in the lambing rate. But this figure has now been reduced by 8% (1.36 million) to 15.8 million head; the smallest for many years. A fall in the lamb crop is perhaps not that surprising considering the extreme weather conditions producers have had to deal with. Lamb losses in some of the worst affected regions have understandably been well above average. But, according to EBLEX, it is not just the recent poor weather that has caused the drop. Last year’s wet summer meant many ewes were not in top condition at tupping time, with conditions since then not being much better. Even so overall slaughterings in 2013 are still forecast to be 3% higher than in 2012 due to the large carryover of hoggets fromlast year. The low 2013 lamb crop is not expected to have too much of an impact until the second half of 2013 and the first half of 2014. EBLEX is forecasting the lamb kill to be 7% lower year-on-year during this period – and this is providing the season isn’t further affected by the weather. UK MEAT BALANCE – Source: AHDB/EBLEX SHEEPMEAT ‘000 tonnes 2011 2012 2013* 2014* Production 289.2 275.6 282 280.8 Imports 103.1 99.8 110.3 105.3 Exports 102.6 98.1 101.3 100.4 Total Consumption 289.6 276.8 290.5 285.3 Carcase weight equivalent and including processed product * forecast Meanwhile, prices have exceeded all expectations, especially considering where they were during the first couple of months of 2013. Sale values rose sharply in March and have remained firm for a longer period than anticipated. According to EBLEX, the lamb price at the beginning of May was the second highest it has ever been at that time of year, only beaten by the record high of 2011. Supermarket promotional activity and the favourable exchange rate have been the main driving forces behind the price increase. The relatively low numbers of new season lamb coming forward, due to weather disruptions, has also helped the old season lamb price. With more new season lamb numbers now reaching the market and supermarket promotions ending, prices are expected to follow the seasonal decline.
